ICG Cryptocurrency 2024 Review and 2025 Outlook

Preface

The year 2024 marks a pivotal moment in the history of the cryptocurrency industry, as traditional financial institutions began to participate, and global regulatory shifts and legislative frameworks began to take shape. With the conclusion of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, the U.S. is set to usher in the most crypto-friendly Congress ever in 2025. This has led to increased expectations of relaxed global cryptocurrency regulations, with discussions now focusing on whether cryptocurrencies should be included in national or regional reserves. Countries and regions such as Europe, Russia, and Hong Kong also advanced cryptocurrency legislation in 2024, actively participating in the global crypto competition.

Key events such as the successful launch of Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs in the U.S., MicroStrategy being included in the NASDAQ-100 index, and major financial institutions like BlackRock accelerating the tokenization process have all increased the exposure of global traditional financial institutions to cryptocurrency investments. This trend is expected to continue into 2025.

In 2024, the cryptocurrency market diverged from global net liquidity, unlike the alignment seen in previous crypto cycles. With the start of the global interest rate cut cycle, it is expected that this may continue to drive the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies upward, but caution is needed regarding the possibility that global net liquidity growth may fall short of expectations. Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $100,000 per coin in 2024, securing its position as the top-performing asset class globally. The Altcoin season has not truly arrived, as market volume, volatility, and financing rates suggest that the crypto market sentiment has not yet entered the FOMO phase. Global mining competition has intensified, with only three publicly traded mining companies — Bitfarms, Core Scientific, and Intchains — reporting positive operating income from January to September 2024.

In 2025, major crypto institutions share a consensus on continuing new highs in the crypto market, along with trends such as global regulatory loosening, institutionalization, tokenization, stablecoins, DeFi, and AI agents. The general expectation is that Bitcoin’s price will reach $150,000 to $200,000, Ethereum will exceed $5,500, Altcoins will outperform Bitcoin in terms of growth, and the market capitalization of stablecoins will surpass $400 billion. However, there are still differences among leading institutions regarding the specific timing and pace of these developments.

2024 Cryptocurrency Industry Review

—Micro and Regulation

2024 is the turning point for U.S. cypto regulation. Since 2023, SEC had filed lawsuits against major cryptocurrency exchanges such as Coinbase, Binance, and Kraken, leading to a tightening of regulatory measures. However, following the conclusion of the U.S. presidential election in November 2024, the country was set to welcome the most crypto-friendly Congress in history. With market expectations rising for a relaxation of crypto regulations, the crypto market experienced a significant rally after November 2024.

Market sentiment now anticipates that the U.S. Congress will resume discussions on cryptocurrency legislation in 2025. Key bills, such as the FIT21 (Future Investment in Technology Act of 2021) and stablecoin regulation bills, are expected to become priority topics on the legislative agenda.

As we discussed in “As U.S. election approaching, will the crypto industry usher in a policy spring?”, the cryptocurrency industry has become an influential political force during the 2024 U.S. presidential election. According to a report by Public Citizen, cryptocurrency companies have already spent over $119 million on donations for the 2024 U.S. elections, accounting for 43.5% of all corporate donations. This level of political engagement is not only shaping U.S. policy but is also being mirrored by the cryptocurrency industry in Canada. The Canadian crypto sector hopes to use similar strategies to increase its political influence domestically by affecting elections.

If the cryptocurrency industry continues to make substantial election contributions, it is expected that policies will remain favorable and lenient toward the industry in the future.

Beyond the United States, the global race for cryptocurrency regulation has been accelerating. Many countries and regions are looking to attract crypto giants and entrepreneurs by creating friendly and transparent regulatory frameworks for the industry.

In December 2024, Europe’s Crypto Asset Market Regulation (MiCA) will come into full effect, marking the European Union’s first comprehensive legislation for the regulation of crypto assets. The United Kingdom is set to announce its final regulatory rules for the crypto industry by 2026. In Russia, the crypto mining legislation will take effect in November 2024. Hong Kong’s stablecoin legislation is also in progress. Additionally, several countries and regions are introducing or revising tax policies aimed at the cryptocurrency sector.

Currently, only nine countries or regions publicly hold Bitcoin, but former U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposal during his election campaign to incorporate Bitcoin into the U.S. national reserve sparked global discussions on government reserves. In July 2024, Senator Cynthia Lummis introduced the BITCOIN Act, aiming to legislate Bitcoin as part of the U.S. national reserve. Following this, 10 U.S. states, including Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Florida, began deliberating on whether to establish state-level strategic reserves or make investments in Bitcoin.

Beyond the United States, regions such as El Salvador, Brazil, Russia, Poland, Japan, and Vancouver are also considering integrating Bitcoin into their investment portfolios or national reserves.

On a macro level, both the U.S. Dollar Index and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield exhibited a V-shaped trajectory throughout the year. Starting from the beginning of the year, both metrics saw a consistent decline. However, in August, as the likelihood of Donald Trump’s victory in the election increased, both the dollar index and the Treasury yield bottomed out and began to rebound. By December, they reached their highest levels of the year.

The market remains concerned about the potential for reinflation in the U.S. in 2025. While there is still broad consensus on a soft landing and long-term rate cuts, there is significant divergence regarding the pace and extent of the Federal Reserve’s easing measures in 2025.

Historically, cryptocurrency cycles have shown a clear correlation with the global M2 growth rate, but in 2024, despite Bitcoin’s price growth, global net liquidity and the global M2 growth rate did not show significant increases. While global net liquidity and M2 growth were higher in 2024 compared to 2023, they still remain significantly lower than in 2018 and 2021. This indicates that the economic conditions influencing the crypto market are diverging from the traditional liquidity-driven patterns seen in past cycles.

We have been closely tracking the M2 growth rates of central banks in the U.S., China, Japan, and the Eurozone for a long time, and in 2024, we observed a divergence between Bitcoin’s price performance and the M2 growth rates of these major economies.

As the global interest rate cutting cycle begins, it could continue to support the upward trend in the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies. However, it is important to remain cautious of the possibility that global net liquidity growth may fall short of expectations, which could limit the sustained growth of the crypto market despite favorable monetary conditions.

— Crypto Market Review

By the end of 2024, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies reached $3.25 trillion, marking a 97% increase compared to 2023. This significant rise was largely influenced by the expectation of looser U.S. crypto regulations following the likelihood of Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election. In Q4 of 2024, the crypto market capitalization saw a 41% quarter-on-quarter increase, reaching a historic high of $3.72 trillion.

In 2024, Bitcoin continued the strong momentum it built in 2023, outperforming all major asset classes in terms of returns. Over the past 10 years, Bitcoin has ranked as the top-performing major asset in 8 years. By the end of 2024, Bitcoin reached $93,429 per coin, reflecting a 121% increase compared to 2023, with a 48% quarter-on-quarter growth in Q4.

Ethereum also showed strong performance in 2024, reaching $3,333 per coin by the end of the year, a 46% increase from 2023, with a 28% quarter-on-quarter growth in Q4. However, Altcoin season has not yet fully arrived, as the market is still largely driven by the performance of Bitcoin and Ethereum.

2024 marked a pivotal year for financial institutions fully embracing crypto assets. In January and July of 2024, the U.S. Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs were launched, significantly accelerating the institutionalization of the crypto market.

By the end of the year, the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF saw net inflows of $35.2 billion, holding approximately 1.126 million BTC, with a market value of about $105.2 billion. Meanwhile, the U.S. Ethereum spot ETF had net inflows of $30 million, but its inflows showed a notable increase since November, indicating growing institutional interest in Ethereum as well.

In 2024, the Meme and Payments sectors in the crypto market showed impressive performance, growing by 219% and 192% year-on-year, respectively. In contrast, the NFT and GameFi sectors underperformed, with NFTs seeing a 1% decline and GameFi experiencing a 9% drop year-on-year.

In 2024, the global cryptocurrency trading volume reached $32.5 trillion, representing a 111% year-on-year increase. In Q4 alone, trading volume surged to $11.3 trillion, marking a 142% increase compared to the same period in 2023.

Overall, the first three quarters of 2024 saw relatively subdued market activity, with the growth in trading volume primarily driven by the increase in cryptocurrency market capitalization. It wasn’t until the fourth quarter of 2024 that market trading sentiment became more active.

Coinbase’s trading volume followed the same trend as the overall cryptocurrency market in 2024. The exchange’s total trading volume reached $1.1 trillion, a 148% year-on-year increase, with its market share rising accordingly. In Q4, Coinbase saw a trading volume of $400 billion, reflecting a 191% year-on-year increase. This surge was particularly pronounced after Donald Trump’s victory in November 2024, which led to a trading peak.

Throughout 2024, cryptocurrency volatility initially spiked in the early part of the year, coinciding with significant corrections in Bitcoin’s price. However, in the second half of the year, the volatility of cryptocurrency prices moderated and gradually trended upward, without the sharp fluctuations that typically accompany large price swings.

In 2024, the Fear and Greed Index mostly stayed in the neutral to optimistic range, indicating that market sentiment was generally positive towards cryptocurrency prices. Looking at the performance of cryptocurrency prices, the Fear and Greed Index proved to be a reliable indicator of market tops and bottoms. Typically, entering the market during the “Fear” zone and exiting during the “Extreme Greed” zone has proven to be a good strategy, as these periods often mark key turning points in market cycles.

From the perspective of margin lending rates, the market in 2024 did not reach the typical bull market peak. It is generally believed that when market sentiment is highly bullish, margin rates often exceed 10%. However, in 2024, this high level of market optimism was only observed in Q1, when Bitcoin briefly surpassed the $70,000 mark, driving a strong long sentiment. Throughout the rest of the year, margin rates remained relatively subdued, suggesting that the market did not reach the extreme bullish conditions typically associated with a full-blown bull market.

In 2024, due to the Bitcoin halving event and expectations of continued price increases, global mining competition intensified. By the end of 2024, the average Bitcoin mining hash rate reached 805.8 EH/s, setting a new high for the year. The global hash rate grew by 60.5% year-on-year in 2024. Additionally, the Bitcoin mining difficulty hit 109.8 by the end of the year, marking another all-time high. The mining difficulty saw a 52.5% year-on-year increase throughout the year.

The intensifying mining competition led to challenges for mining companies. Among the publicly listed U.S. mining firms, only Bitfarms, Core Scientific, and Intchains reported positive operating profits from January to September 2024, highlighting the pressure faced by most companies in the sector.

2025 Major Crypto Institutions Outlook Overview

Overall, major crypto institutions are in consensus that the crypto market will reach new highs in 2025, with trends such as global regulatory easing, institutional adoption, tokenization, stablecoins, DeFi, and AI agents continuing to gain traction. It is widely expected that Bitcoin’s price will reach $150,000 to $200,000, Ethereum will surpass $5,500, Altcoins will outpace Bitcoin in growth, and the market cap of stablecoins will exceed $400 billion. However, there remain differences among major institutions regarding the specific timing and pace of these developments.

Here are the market predictions for 2025 from major crypto institutions:

[Galaxy]

Source Link:
https://www.galaxy.com/insights/research/crypto-predictions-2025/

1. Bitcoin:

• The price is expected to reach $150,000 in the first half of 2025, and $185,000 by Q4 2025. The increase in adoption by financial institutions, corporations, and nations will be a significant catalyst. Bitcoin is expected to become one of the highest-returning assets globally after risk adjustment in 2025.
• The AUM of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF is expected to surpass $250 billion by 2025.
• The current DeFi market cap for Bitcoin stands at $15.4 billion, and it is expected to double by 2025.
• The U.S. government is not expected to purchase Bitcoin in 2025.

2. Ethereum:

• The price is expected to exceed $5,500 in 2025, with relaxed regulation for DeFi and staking being key catalysts.
• Ethereum’s staking rate is anticipated to exceed 50%.

3. Stablecoins:

• Stablecoin market capitalization is expected to surpass $400 billion in 2025, with Tether’s market share declining to below 50%. It is expected that at least 10 traditional financial institutions will launch stablecoins or related collaborations.
• It is anticipated that the U.S. will pass stablecoin legislation in 2025.

4. Dogecoin：price will surpass $1, and its market cap will exceed $100 billion.

5. DeFi is expected to enter the “dividend era.”

6. Over half of the crypto mining companies in the top 20 by market cap are expected to transition into large-scale cloud computing, AI, or high-performance computing.

7. The top 4 global custodians (JPMorgan, State Street, Citigroup, and Bank of New York Mellon) will begin offering digital asset custody services by 2025.

[VanEck]

Source Link:
https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/blogs/digital-assets/matthew-sigel-vanecks-10-crypto-predictions-for-2025/

1. The crypto market is expected to reach a mid-term high in Q1 2025 and hit an all-time high in Q4 2025. The expected high for Bitcoin is $180,000, for Ethereum $6,000, for Solana $500, and for SUI $10.
2. The U.S. federal government or at least one state government is expected to establish Bitcoin reserves and increase crypto adoption. Solana ETFs will be approved, and Ethereum’s staking feature will also be approved. The U.S.’s share of global mining hash rate is expected to grow from 8% in 2024 to 35% in 2025.
3. The value of tokenized securities is expected to exceed $50 billion. Currently, there are about $120 million in tokenized securities on the blockchain, and 2025 is expected to be the breakout year for tokenized securities.

4. Stablecoins: The daily settlement volume of stablecoins is expected to reach $300 billion by 2025. In November 2024, the daily settlement volume of stablecoins was approximately $100 billion. With the adoption of major tech companies (such as Apple and Google) and payment networks (like Visa and Mastercard), stablecoins are expected to become a core component of global commerce. Additionally, the remittance market for stablecoins is also expected to experience explosive growth.

5. On-chain AI agents may exceed 1 million by 2025.

6. Bitcoin Layer-2 Networks: The Total Value Locked (TVL) in Bitcoin’s Layer-2 networks is expected to reach 100,000 BTC. Bitcoin L2 solutions grew 6x in 2024, with TVL exceeding 30,000 BTC.

7. Ethereum Blob Space: Revenue from Ethereum’s Blob space is expected to reach $1 billion.

8. DeFi is expected to hit new all-time highs, with DEX trading volumes reaching $40 billion and TVL reaching $200 billion.

9. NFT Market Revival: The NFT market is expected to rebound, with trading volumes reaching $30 billion.

10. DApp Tokens: The performance gap between DApp tokens and L1 tokens is expected to narrow.

[Bitwise]

Source Link:
https://s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/static.bitwiseinvestments.com/Research/Bitwise-The-Year-Ahead-10-Crypto-Predictions-for-2025.pdf

1. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana prices are expected to hit new all-time highs. Bitcoin is expected to surpass $200,000, Ethereum above $7,000, and Solana over $750.
2. Bitcoin ETF Net Inflows: Bitcoin ETFs are expected to see net inflows higher than in 2024.
3. Coinbase will surpass Charles Schwab to become the world’s most valuable brokerage, with stock prices exceeding $700 per share.
4. 2025 will be the year of crypto IPOs, with at least 5 crypto unicorns expected to go public in the U.S., including Circle, Figure, Kraken, Anchorage, and Chainanalysis.
5. AI Agents Issuing Tokens may trigger a meme wave even bigger than in 2024.
6. Countries Holding Bitcoin: The number of countries and regions holding Bitcoin is expected to double.
7. Coinbase will be added to the S&P 500, and MicroStrategy will be included in the NASDAQ-100.
8. The U.S. Department of Labor will ease investment guidance for 401(k) plans, leading to hundreds of billions of dollars flowing into the crypto market.
9. Stablecoin Legislation in the U.S.: U.S. stablecoin legislation is expected, leading to a market cap exceeding $400 billion.
10. As Wall Street intensifies its entry, RWA (Real World Assets) could exceed $50 billion in market cap.

[Bitget]

Source Link:
https://www.bitgetapps.com/zh-CN/academy/bitcoin-2024-recap-2025-predictions

1. The total market capitalization of the crypto market is expected to exceed $8 trillion in 2025.
2. Bitcoin: Some countries or regions may establish strategic Bitcoin reserves. Large corporations, especially in tech, may allocate part of their cash reserves into Bitcoin. The total value locked in Bitcoin DeFi is expected to surpass the current value of Bitcoin derivatives on other blockchains ($24 billion). Bitcoin is expected to play a more significant role in international trade, remittances, and sovereign wealth management.
3. ETFs: The market is expected to launch new cryptocurrency-themed ETFs in 2025.

[Franklin Templeton]

Source Link:
https://www.franklintempleton.com/forms-literature/download/DAO-F25

1. Regulation: Pro-crypto regulation in the U.S. will drive innovation in the global crypto industry. More ETFs and tokenized securities will be launched in the market.
2. Stablecoins: The U.S. will introduce stablecoin regulatory legislation, and mainstream financial institutions will issue their own stablecoins.
3. DeFi: The development of tokenized products and stablecoins will be a key driver for DeFi’s global expansion.
4. Bitcoin: More countries, regions, and institutions will adopt Bitcoin as a reserve asset, with some countries potentially adding Bitcoin to their strategic reserves.
5. DePIN: The rise of decentralized applications in the real world, such as IoT, will drive demand for DePIN.
6. AI Agents will drive online automated trading, asset management, and social media operations.

[Coinbase]

Source Link:
https://coinbase.bynder.com/m/18348e25ea106276/original/Coinbase_Institutional_Crypto-Market-Outlook_2025_v1.pdf

1. XRP, SOL, LTC, HBAR and other crypto assets ETFs may receive approval.
2. Stablecoins will become the killer app in the cryptocurrency space. The next wave of true crypto mass adoption may come from stablecoins and the payments sector. In the future, the primary use of stablecoins could expand beyond trading to include global capital flows and commercial payments.
3. Tokenization will further optimize portfolio construction and management, moving the entire investment process on-chain to enable real-time cross-border settlement and 24/7 trading. The scope of RWA applications will expand from U.S. Treasury bonds and money market funds to private credit, commodities, corporate bonds, real estate, and insurance.
4. Telegram Trading Bots are expected to remain one of the most profitable projects in 2025.
5. DePIN will likely address real-world distribution challenges.
6. In 2025, more applications may integrate passkey login and wallets.
7. Decentralized Identity will likely become more widespread.
8. Attention should be paid to the potential impact of sell-offs from entities such as Mt. Gox and the U.S. government on Bitcoin prices, as well as the Ethereum upgrade in Q1 2025.

[Bitcoin Suisse]

Source Link:
https://files.bitcoinsuisse.com/assets/pdf/BitcoinSuisse_CryptoOutlook2025.pdf

1. The crypto market capitalization is expected to grow fivefold by 2025, with Altcoin market capitalization expected to increase tenfold. The first half of 2025 will see the “Altcoin Season,” and Bitcoin’s market share is expected to drop to 45%, with ETH and SOL outperforming BTC.

2. Bitcoin: Bitcoin is expected to reach a historic new high of $180,000 to $200,000 by 2025. As institutional adoption increases, the price of Bitcoin could eventually reach $2.5 million to $5 million per coin. Additionally, factors such as ETFs, options, and regulatory developments could reduce Bitcoin’s volatility, which is expected to fall below that of high-tech stocks.

3. Ethereum: The market-adjusted size of Ethereum’s staking ETF is expected to surpass Bitcoin’s.

4. Solana: Solana is set to solidify its position as the top smart contract platform. The 2025 Firedancer upgrade is highly anticipated, and Solana is expected to remain the preferred platform for DeFi and DePIN startups.

5. ETFs: It is expected that during Trump’s administration, ETFs for Ethereum staking, Solana, and XRP will be approved.

6. 2025 will be the year of institutional Rollups (Layer-2 scaling solutions). Financial giants will begin building Rollups on the Ethereum chain.

Bitcoin ETF’s scale will expand to record levels, with 13 out of the 22 major global financial institutions starting to explore the tokenization market. BlackRock is launching its tokenized fund, BUIDL, and Visa has announced that its tokenized asset platform, VTAP, will launch pilot programs in 2025.

[Forbes]

Original Links: Link 1,Link 2

1. The total market value of cryptocurrencies is expected to exceed $8 trillion, with Bitcoin’s price surpassing $150,000 per coin.
2. Various U.S. states may establish Bitcoin reserves, and the G7 or BRICS countries might create strategic Bitcoin reserves.
3. Bitcoin’s DeFi sector is predicted to experience explosive growth, with its Total Value Locked (TVL) surpassing $24 billion.
4. Stablecoins are expected to reach a market capitalization of over $400 billion, and U.S. stablecoin legislation may be passed.
5. New cryptocurrency ETFs such as Solana’s may be approved, and an Ethereum ETF could integrate staking functionality.
6. One of the seven major U.S. stock market giants may invest cash into Bitcoin.
7. The U.S. is expected to regain its position as a cryptocurrency powerhouse, with a large-scale rise in startups.
8. AI-powered cryptocurrencies are likely to become a major trend.
9. Layer-2 applications (L2) are expected to continue growing.